Believing in a single model may be dangerous, and addressing model uncertainty by averaging different models in making forecasts may be very beneficial. In this

This thesis uses Bayesian methods to forecast exchange rates and compares the results to existing models such as OLS and the random walk. We focus on commodity

Since Meese and Rogoff (1983) results showed that no model could outperform a random walk in predicting exchange rates. Many papers have tried to find a forecas