International Trade and the Business Cycle

Download or read book International Trade and the Business Cycle written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-04-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balances of the Group of Seven countries.