This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we e
This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we e
Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing ex
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and dow
This paper introduces the Asset and Liability Management (ALM) compound option model. The model builds on the observation that the public sector net worth in a