A Power Comparison of Mutual Fund Timing and Selectivity Models Under Varying Portfolio and Market Conditions

Download or read book A Power Comparison of Mutual Fund Timing and Selectivity Models Under Varying Portfolio and Market Conditions written by Aydeen Azimi-Zonooz and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this study is to test the accuracy of various mutual fund timing and selectivity models under a range of portfolio managerial skills and varying market conditions. Portfolio returns in a variety of skill environments are generated using a simulation procedure. The generated portfolio returns are based on the historical patterns and time series behavior of a market portfolio proxy and on a sample of mutual funds. The proposed timing and selectivity portfolio returns mimic the activities of actual mutual fund managers who possess varying degrees of skill. Using the constructed portfolio returns, various performance models are compared in terms of their power to detect timing and selectivity abilities, by means of an iterative simulation procedure. The frequency of errors in rejecting the null hypotheses of no market timing and no selectivity abilities shape the analyses between the models for power comparison. The results indicate that time varying beta models of Lockwood- Kadiyala and Bhattacharya-Pfleiderer rank highest in tests of both market timing and selectivity. The Jensen performance model achieves the best results in selectivity environments in which managers do not possess timing skill. The Henriksson-Merton model performs most highly in tests of market timing in which managers lack timing skill. The study also investigates the effects of heteroskedasticity on the performance models. The results of analysis before and after model correction for nonconstant error term variance (heteroskedasticity) for specific performance methodologies do not follow a consistent pattern.