A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

Download or read book A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.